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Special Dividends

The market is getting a little frothy in the very short term and its possible that we see a dip in the early to middle part of December. In the intermediate term sentiment is nowhere near extreme and we are still in the seasonally strongest few months of the year. While I have used strength to trim some positions and wrote covered calls against others I am maintaining a medium to moderately net long posture. I prefer to give the market the benefit of the doubt during this time of year.

A few companies have announced special dividends for the latter part of December. If this trend picks up and an abnormally large amount of dividends are paid out in late December it could give the market  a lift as some investors reinvest these dividends. The ideal setup would be for us to see a correction into mid December, all the while many more special dividends are announced. That would make for an excellent risk/reward long setup.

Tsachy Mishal on November 29, 2012 at 12:23 pm | Filed Under Uncategorized

  • Shubh Desai

    Every time I watch TV or hear Radio or on WEB I hear and see Dividend. Also lot of head line on
    Special Dividends. Do you think Dividend stock are in bubble? I hope not because I am a fan of income.

    • http://www.capitalobserver.com/ Tsachy Mishal

      I think you have to look at them on a case by case basis. Two of my three largest positions are high dividend payers, CIM & VOD

  • praguer

    What do you think about CIM’s dividend(s) being partially a return of capital since this suggests that actual earnings are down? 

    • http://www.capitalobserver.com/ Tsachy Mishal

      The short answer is that taxable earnings are not the same as economic earnings. This does not worry me.
      CIM owns junior bonds. They accrue value as the senior bonds are paid off. CIM does not recognize the accrued income on a taxable basis until they sell.

      • praguer

         Thank you. Clear and sensible.

  • praguer

    CIM tells us that the dividends this year will be partially a return of capital. This implies that earnings and possibly valuations are down. What is your read?