Too Much Pessimism
I have been using weakness in the past week to further expand my longs. I thought that we would see a turn in the early part of last week but it took until Friday for that turn to occur. There are even more indicators pointing to excessive pessimism than there were a week ago:
- Rydex traders are positioned nearly as bearishly as they have been all year.
- Hulbert newsletter writers are recommending an outright short in the S&P 500, which is not seen very often.
- Both Investors Intelligence and AAII bears are at the highest levels in a year.
- The market is deeply oversold
The oversold reading, the excessive pessimism and the very strong seasonality help make a very strong case for the long side. I am positioned aggressively long.